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2014.12.13 [转] Probability of 2nd interview  

2014-12-13 13:12:39|  分类: 技术博客 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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Question:
I got this question during an interview with Amazon:
50% of all people who receive a first interview receive a second interview
95% of your friends that got a second interview felt they had a good first interview
75% of your friends that DID NOT get a second interview felt they had a good first interview
If you feel that you had a good first interview, what is the probability you will receive a second interview?

Answer:

Say 200 people took the interview, so that 100 received a 2nd interview and 100 did not. Out of the first lot, 95 felt they had a great first interview. Out of the 2nd lot, 75 felt they had a great first interview. So in total 95 + 75 people felt they had a great first interview. Of those 95 + 75 = 170 people, only 95 actually got a 2nd interview. Thus the probability is:

95 / ( 95 + 75 ) = 95 / 170 = 19 / 34

Note that, as many commenters graciously point out, this computation is only justifiable if you assume that your friends form an unbiased and well distributed sampling set, which may be a strong assumption.

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